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Speculation on the Expansion Launch Date for Battle for Azeroth
Wowhead
Pubblicato
17/11/2017 alle 18:49
da
perculia
Battle for Azeroth was just revealed and people are curious when it will launch. When the expansion-related novel
Before the Storm
was delayed, we wondered if it was tied to the expansion. Here's a look at the content schedule throughout Legion and our educated guesses on a timeline for Battle for Azeroth.
Note: this is just speculation, nothing is official. We're putting on our tinfoil hats!
Expansion Tie-In Books
With the news that the novel
Before the Storm
was delayed to June 12th, players have been speculating as to the launch of Battle for Azeroth. Historically, we've seen the expansion tie-in book launch in advance of the expansion - although the lead-in time is wildly inconsistent. Let's look at the data for the past few expansions:
Cataclysm
- 49 days between
The Shattering
and launch.
Mists
- 32 days between
Tides of War
and launch.
Warlords
- 191 days between
War Crimes
and launch.
Legion
- 140 days between
Illidan
and launch.
The books for Warlords of Draenor and Legion have a huge gap between the time of publication and the expansion, while the books for Cataclysm and Mists of Pandaria are relatively close. In all cases, the book does launch before the expansion though. So one could reasonably assume that if
Before the Storm
launches in June 2018, we are not going to see the prepatch before then.
Legion Patch Schedule
One common theory was that Legion patches would always be 77 days apart. This held true for most of Legion, until Patch 7.3 and Antorus. The data framework for Antorus was added earlier than the 77 day mark, with Antorus scheduled to launch 91 days after Patch 7.3.
We know that there's a Patch 7.3.5 on the way which brings Ulduar Timewalking and a revamped leveling experience. If Patch 7.3.5 were to launch 77 days after Antorus, it would launch on February 13, 2018. Another 77 days after that would bring it to May 1st, 2018 - still before the launch of
Before the Storm
.
If we assume that Blizzard's later Legion patches will be slightly longer, and use the 91 days model, that brings us to February 27, 2018 for 7.3.5 and May 29th, 2018 for a pre-patch. That's closer to the
Before the Storm
but still in advance.
Historically, the patches at the end of an expansion tend to be longer than at the start, so it's reasonable to assume the 7.3.X patches will last slightly longer than the earlier patches, and deviate more from the 77 day expectation.
Legion Arena Seasons
Another way to roughly predict the duration of Legion is to look at the arena seasons. We are up to seven datamined arena seasons (
Gladiatore: Stagione 7 di Legion
), with Legion Season 6 starting on November 28th, 2017. The Arena Seasons have not been tied to patches and do not always follow the 77 day rule. So far we have seen Arena Seasons lasting 77 - 105 days.
If we assume two more arena seasons in the 80-100 day range, that would place the end of Season 7 around June, which would tie in well with a Battle for Azeroth pre-patch and novel explaining the events leading up to the cinematic.
Expansion Development
There's usually a gap of a year or more between when an expansion is announced and it goes live:
However anything goes moving forward, since the Legion patch cycle is so different from recent patch cycles, indicating a change in development practices:
Mists of Pandaria had four major patches, with several smaller ones in Patch 5.4 including more item upgrades in Patch 5.4.8.
Warlords of Draenor had two major patches, with several smaller ones in Patch 6.2. Some would argue that the 6.2.X patches were bigger than Patch 6.1. Flying was introduced in 6.2.2 and Cataclysm Timewalking in 6.2.3.
Legion is currently in its third major patch, and Blizzard has split up story content vs raid/class changes into different timelines. For example, 7.2 unlocked the Broken Shore, 7.2.5 unlocked the Tomb of Sargeras raid. We're currently on Patch 7.3 with the raid in 7.3.2 and some content updates and zone scaling in 7.3.5.
Legion
Warlords
Mists
Launch
56
103
64
X.1 patch
156
119
99
X.2 patch
155
435
77
X.3 patch
91+
112
X.4 patch
429
Conclusions
Using the old model for patches and expansions, we wouldn't be getting Battle for Azeroth for at least a year after the November 2017 BlizzCon announcement. However, with the sped-up nature of content in Legion, we think it's likely that we'd be seeing a Q3 2018 launch for Battle for Azeroth.
7.3.5 could be a good patch to tide people over in early 2018, with the closing of the Legion story, new zone scaling, and content updates like Ulduar Timewalking. By early summer we'd have the
Before the Storm
novel, with the prepatch coming soon after.
We do not think this will mean another content drought because Blizzard has staggered content throughout Legion, and only now are we getting some content datamined back in 7.2.5 like
the 13th anniversary event
. We could imagine 7.3.5 slowly revealing the post-Argus story, culminating in questlines explaining the faction alignment for the Allied Races.
A Q3 launch could mean Blizzard could tease even more Battle for Azeroth content at gamescom, as details on the dungeons and raids were quite light. We'd predict the later side of Q3 as BlizzCon did not announce Battle for Azeroth pre-order, and
Legion Pre-Order
went live during BlizzCon 2015.
Blizzard has been reinventing the concept of patches in Legion. Previously a patch was a massive content update, featuring new zones, class changes, raids, and a PvP season. However in Legion, patches mark the start of a new story, featuring updated quests, events, and content to do every week, with a major raid halfway through the new patch. This new system allows Blizzard to stagger content more, leading to faster patch dates and more time to polish content like raids.
When do you think Battle for Azeroth is launching? Let us know in the comments!
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